SABMiller Subsidiary: Amalgamated Beverage Industries (ABI): OVAL Demand Prediction System
OVAL (Optimized Vending and Logistics) has been in use at ABI Vending for three years. OVAL is a demand prediction system that tells ABI dynamically when to visit vendors based on the temperature and various school and public holidays that affect consumption. OVAL trains from sales, weather and calendars to get a predictive model specific to each vending machine. The system has achieved enormous fleet savings at ABI of between 30% and 50% depending on the season. OVAL works with FLO (Fleet Logistics Optimizer) to route vehicles, and the combined system was a category winner in the 2002 Logistics Achiever Awards.
OVAL is being extended to include new functionality needed at ABI. Top of the list is a new loading algorithm which loads vehicles by the forecasted amount plus an extra margin per machine based on prediction variance over time. Other new features include a new interface to analyze predictor accuracy over time for a single vendor, a route, or the global operation. The system now makes it easier to pinpoint problematic vendors that stock out frequently, and gives a flavour analysis of each stock out.
OVAL can be used in any full service vending scenario where fixed visitation frequencies are hampering optimal refilling of vending machines.
The image above illustrates OVAL tracking prediction accuracy over time.
